March 18, 2021 - (Gold Market Wire) - Yesterday's rally on the dovish Fed release failed to hold, and back down we have gone. Well, once again, a news induced rally failed to stick. Nothing new there. If scalpers haven't learned to sell these news items, they should start. It's a fundamental of short-term trading - fading the news. Interestingly, we halted for the close right where our favorite indicator - the 50-day moving average - said we should. Just shy of settling above. It proved too much of a mountain to climb.

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Its a failure - but its also a strategic indicator. We're going to need to take the 50-day on, decisively, before we can think about position length for the trading book. Also, while we failed at the 50-day, we did clear the power downtrend. That in itself is worthy of note. In fact, today we've bounced right off of it...so, if nothing else, it looks like the trend line is working. Tomorrow, being Friday, is going to be a critical close. Especially after a week like this.

We note, yet again, that the US Dollar has rallied right back, and that, for all of the Fed's dovish talk, the Dollar is not retreating. If that doesn't tell you something... you need a hearing check...

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So, a mixed picture, yes, but we have to say, the Precious Metals complex is holding its own. The US Dollar strength is a head wind, no doubt, but the resilience of the metals in the face of it is notable. We are still looking for a place to get long, and we will use Silver's 50-day moving average as the first hurdle necessary to start thinking about length. We still feel, between now and the end of the year, the Metals will be much higher.