August 28, 2024 - (Gold Market Wire) - It's still 'silly season' out there, the last big weekend of the summer, and, as if on cue, the entire Gold community is screaming $3,000 !! any day now. Needless to say, with our contrarian hat, this has us concerned. Those sites that bundle Gold articles are full to the rafters with people yelling "we're unstoppable". Well, something in us tightens, when that happens and says "be careful!". This is a song we have heard played many times, and it usually has the same ending - namely, stalled rally, falling bull, etc. It would be easier to join in the chorus if it wasn't the last days of August, but that has us backing away from the roar of the crowd.

The chart:

Looks like we are near the top of the channel and maybe reversing. Yes, we know, we know, we've made a new all time high. So what?! Our daily chart says we are near the top of the action. The follow through from $2500 was so suspicious, it was like a greasy path laid by a scoundrel trying to trick the innocent for their lunch money. Could we be wrong? Of course, that is what the market is all about. But our hackles are up.

The weekly gives us some definition.

Now we can see the work that needs to be done. We need to hold that horizontal line and get established. Then we can consider length.

As we have said recently, now that we are the only "non-bull" in the market, tied to the mast while the Sirens sing, we feel behooved to mention, yet again, that we remain bullish Gold. But! We must see how the "season of death", i.e. September and October plays out. We are stymied by this nasty feeling that the September/October period could have some nasty surprises in store.

So, looked at with the cold eye of logic, can we really sail through this election season with only minor disruption? We doubt it!

But "disruption" should be a positive for Gold, that erstwhile barometer of confidence - no? Indeed. But first, we could have a monumental shake-out. If we don't get it and Gold starts to print weekly closes with a "25" handle, we will start to admit we were over cautious. But a rout of the Magnificent 7, a Nvidia blow out, a bad August hang-over from the trading community - could all scotch the markets, and that will, initially, include Gold. We are waiting to see if we get that rout first.

The book is flat. We don't play August games with COT.

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