January 15, 2025 - (Gold Market Wire) - Gold is moving beyond its downtrending lines, on both daily and weekly charts, as the market signals uncertainty over Trump's approaching first 100 days in the White House. Considering how monumental this 100 days will be, there is little doubt as to why people are moving towards Gold. We stand, as we have for years, behind the "Long Dollar and Long Gold" position, with our recent move to commit some of the Gold position to a leveraged short against the Euro and the Pound. As an aside, it is now becoming plainly clear that 160 is the level to watch for the Yen. If we get weekly closes above that level - we should move strongly higher. The Yen - and the entire domestic Japanese economy, is in desperate straights.

To the charts:

A strong performance indeed. $2800 remains some way away, but we think there is a chance we move to test it again. Such is the level of uncertainty in the world.

The cause of the uncertainty is two-fold. One is Trump's thin congressional majority, amidst a sea of people whose professional remit is to make his life hell on earth. This does not make an easy ride for his opening days in office. The more critical element, of course, is Ukraine - where there are so many circles to be squared one finds it difficult to see how a "deal" is going to be reached. Trump's idea of himself as a "Dealmaker" is about to have its most vigorous test.

Putin, and Russia, are not some Manhattan property deal. Seeking a complete re-cast of the global security architecture while the State Department stands firmly against negotiations is going to be a tall order - maybe even more than Trump can handle. Too much of Washington's power structure is invested in this war. Moreover, it's about the only thing bringing serious money into an otherwise moribund EU economy.

For Trump to make any deal on the scale that Putin seeks, means confronting the 'swamp', which is, in fact, an ocean of monstrous depth. He will have a monumental task ahead. If it starts to falter, both Gold and Oil will run hard. While Washington believes it has all the cards, in fact, given conditions on the field of battle, and the disintegrating politics of the EU, it may have fewer than it thinks.