October 15, 2024 - (Gold Market Wire) - It couldn't be any clearer that the space above $32.00 on Silver has been marked out as a threshold of resistance. The market tried several times to clear it with conviction, and failed. Now we re-draw the channel to gain some perspective.

and the same zoomed out...

When we turn to Gold, we can see the market stalling out as well.

The channel in Silver should dictate the entry point - but, of course, we have a few serious political and military impediments to such rational action.

Our own view is that Harris is starting to slide in the polls and is likely to lose the election. If Trump prevails (let alone actually makes it alive into the chair in the Oval Office) we could have a sell-off in the metals that could provide a unique buying point. The war premium will evaporate, but macro-economically, not to mention geo-politically, nothing will change. The idea that Ukraine will be 'solved' (it won't) so that a war with China can be promoted, is hardly a solution to the world's problems. A Harris victory, on the other hand - should send the metals sharply higher.

The trading book is flat, and we will probably have to wait for the chart to move in extremis for us to re-establish a position. A Trump victory could see a truly sharp sell-off in the metals as a knee-jerk re-action. The hour approaches.

The X factor, of course, is that any one of a number of global problems, now especially regarding Iran, could set the world on a path to a global confrontation. That means the core has to be held... even if we get the big draw-down from a Trump victory. Trump is hardly a promoter of peace vis-a-vis Iran, and Iran, may, with assistance from Russia, be underestimated militarily. That is a recipe for some rather extreme results from the simmering mid-east conflict, whose re-ignition looks inevitable.