October 30, 2024 - (Gold Market Wire) - Yesterday's Gap higher in gold has, if anything, proven that the charging Bull is not going to rest until the Presidential election is over. The ever escalating political acrimony in the run-up to the US Presidential election has become so caustic - so acrimonious - that there really is no other choice for the metals. Even worse, with Donald Trump leading by ever widening margins in the polls, his now likely victory could unleash a political maelstrom that borders on civil war. The left-wing in America will never accept his re=entry to the Oval office. Conversely - an (unlikely) Harris win, will be so suspect as to make the 2020 election outcome look plausible, in comparison.

The market never lies - and neither does the chart.

We were fortunate to climb back in a few weeks ago on the trading side - having positioned length, off and on for over a decade. Our core position remains unchanged for months - and has only been added to since its inception in 2006. Right now, we keep gaping higher. There is no sign of a parabolic move.

A close up:

The gradual encroachment of the BRICS payment system, which is guaranteed to cloudy the monetary system, has acted as an accelerant for the Gold price. Clearly there are grave concerns about how this all "shakes out", and buying Gold seems to be, again, the go-to place when uncertainty soars and confidence in the old order wanes. Here, indeed, we are.

The question now becomes - are we coming to the end of the bull market? Technically no. We should probably take on $3,000 and $3,300 within the next year - unless, of course, an "outside force" - like war, failed election, civil breakdown, takes effect. Each one of those has a less than negligible chance of happening. But despite the chaos 'outside the window', it is worth noting that Gold is doing the job it has always done - acting a barometer of political confidence in the status quo.

With that is mind one might want to consider a portion of any position to be, for want of a better term, "off-exchange". It is a good time to recall that if the banking system comes under stress, everyone's 'go-to' ETF and favourite trading platform may offer something other than full liquidity.