September 5, 2024 - (Gold Market Wire) - The Metals market is painting a confusing picture as Gold springs back over $2500. The move has been something of a surprise to us, and the week's close will be interesting to say the least.

To begin with, Gold sold off when equities took a smack this week - much as we anticipated. But what has surprised us was the spring back above $2500 today. As ever, we remain agnostic about the market. We have no point to prove, but seek only to profit. We are starting to get an impression, and it is only an impression at this stage, that the political/military environment is creating a conundrum that traps Gold around this level, when it probably should be selling off.

Right now, the disaster that is Ukraine is impacting everything. Europe looks ready to throw in the towel on the issue, as it has no financial or military wherewithal for a fight that takes on Moscow 'mano a mano'. Without a strong US commitment, both financial and militarily, the game is over. Poland may talk tough - but they are in no position to face-off against Russia one on one... and no one within the EU has the ability to support them in such an endeavour. Washington now looks so busy with the Middle East it has, wittingly or unwittingly, appeared to be, finally, by necessity, prioritising. And if Washington has to prioritise between a Europe (read Germany) which it has already show its disdain for, and an Israel which it is tied to the hip at, then Europe will be left to the mercy of the wind. Add oil interests into the mix and the 'downgrade' of Europe, buoyed by Washington's emergent Pacific Priorities (read China), is nearly complete. A whole new security system is emerging.

But, Washington's favoured ally - Israel, is now in a mess so deep, it is becoming nearly existential in nature. Pariah status is one thing - Israel has weathered it before - but the country is torn between a shambolic "Peace Now" style movement, a hatred of all things Netanyahu, and a settler movement which would rather see life on earth terminated, than abandon the idea of Zionism.

Now add a direct admonishment from China to America to stop arming Taiwan. Could things get any worse?

If Gold starts to diverge from the direction of equities we may relent, and seek to establish length. We'd be much happier though, if Silver could confirm. Right now - we still hug the sidelines. The situation is a mess. It is more replete with self-contradictions than one we have ever seen. On to the market itself.

And Silver.

A resolution will becoming shortly. We have a jobs report today, a Fed meeting in a fortnight, the most divisive US election in over 100-years within a political environment bordering on civil war, and three different regional conflicts/stand-offs that threaten world peace... all coming to a head. What could possibly go wrong?

Our only question remains - Are we going to get a down-move first? ...on the way to $3,500.