February 28, 2025 - (Gold Market Wire) - The Gold shakeout is finally taking hold, after what has been one the longest and strongest runs in Gold's modern history. Roughly, a 50% move from bottom to top - in one year. We are due a shakeout, and there's a decent chance we are starting to get the beginning of one. The channel has done its jobs in helping the identify the turn:

Gold likely has further to fall - especially if equities give way. When the funds unload - the market will move. Be of no doubt.

Gold is beginning to reflect the potential for a less than apocalyptic end to the Ukraine conflict. But the price of Gold is not all war premium - just some of it. And our outlook is for a dial down of the war premium - not its elimination. Our outlook for the Dollar rally we positioned for a few months ago may in fact be here. Gold, is often the early indicator because it is something of a small market, and a likely 'first sell' for those looking for a US Dollar rally.

The thesis remains: If we are heading towards insolvency and sovereign debt default in the Western world, one of the first initial moves will be for big/smart money to escape European debt and buy American. That means US Dollar rally.

Also, a root and branch dig out of government waste could be a cleansing like no other. But the turf war it is spawning across America is becoming a sight to behold. Still, the Dollar still remains the place to park money. The US has the consumers that everyone needs, and a military of size. This underpins the US Dollar in a way no collection of European nations can. And that is unlikely to change anytime soon.